TX — Power Infrastructure Updated 2026-07-17

Texas

ERCOT Natural Gas Nuclear Solar Wind Storage Data Center PPAs Queue Bottlenecks

1) Grid operator and market structure

2) Interconnection queue (large load & generation)

  • Large-load queue depth is now a 2026 410 GW issue: ERCOT told the Texas Senate Business & Commerce Committee that, as of March 26, 2026, it was tracking approximately 410 GW of large loads seeking interconnection, about 87% of which were data centers. ERCOT, 2026-04-01
  • The tracked pipeline rose again by June: When PUCT approved Batch Zero on June 18, ERCOT reported more than 438 GW of large-load interconnection requests, nearly 89% data centers. These are requests under study, not realized demand. ERCOT, 2026-06-18
  • Generation interconnection pipeline also grew materially: ERCOT reported 2,008 active generation interconnection requests totaling 453,562 MW as of Feb. 28, 2026, with energy storage (177,642 MW) and solar (162,927 MW) accounting for more than 76% of the queue and gas projects totaling 60,715 MW. ERCOT, 2026-04-01
  • Batch Zero is approved, with a defined study schedule: PUCT approved the transitional Batch Zero process on June 18 for qualified loads of at least 75 MW. ERCOT plans to classify applicants in August 2026, complete the final Batch Zero transmission plan in fall 2027, and begin Batch One in summer 2027; self-supplied and curtailment-capable pathways are part of the framework. ERCOT, 2026-06-18; ERCOT Planning Guide, 2026-06-18
  • Existing ERCOT revision requests remain the foundation: NPRR1234 and PGRR115 replaced the earlier interim large-load process with a formal large-load interconnection process and modeling standards. ERCOT NPRR1234, accessed 2026-06-10; ERCOT PGRR115, accessed 2026-06-10
  • Average wait times: ERCOT’s public large-load materials reviewed through July 17, 2026 publish queue volumes and Batch Zero milestones, but not an average large-load interconnection wait time. The fall 2027 final-plan target is a process milestone, not an average time-to-service. ERCOT, 2026-06-18; ERCOT Large Load Integration, accessed 2026-07-17

3) Ratepayer protection (cost allocation, large-load standards)

  • SB 6 cost contribution: SB 6 added Utilities Code §35.004(c-1), requiring PUCT rules to ensure that covered large-load customers contribute to recovery of interconnection costs; co-ops and municipally owned utilities must pass through reasonable interconnection costs to covered large loads. Texas Legislature, 2025-06-20
  • SB 6 interconnection standards: SB 6 added Utilities Code §37.0561, requiring PUCT to establish ERCOT-region standards for large-load interconnections; the statute directs a 75 MW default threshold unless PUCT sets a lower one and requires disclosures, site control, study fees, and financial-commitment requirements to reduce stranded infrastructure risk while preserving reliability. Texas Legislature, 2025-06-20
  • PUCT Project No. 58480 / 16 TAC §25.370 adopted: Effective March 1, 2026, the large-load forecasting rule establishes criteria for including large loads in ERCOT forecasts used for transmission planning and resource adequacy and requires ERCOT compliance planning for the 2026 Regional Transmission Plan. Texas Register, 2026-02-20
  • PUCT Project No. 58479 / 16 TAC §25.205 adopted: Effective April 15, 2026, the net-metering/co-location rule requires Commission approval before implementing covered arrangements between a new large load customer and an existing ERCOT generation resource, and sets ERCOT study and PUCT decision timelines. Texas Register, 2026-04-10
  • Governor’s June ratepayer directive: Gov. Abbott directed PUCT and ERCOT to ensure data centers fully fund infrastructure needed to serve them, evaluate additional ratepayer protections, submit a joint memorandum by July 17, and open a PUCT proceeding by July 31 aimed at reducing residential transmission costs. The directive sets agency work and deadlines; it does not itself create a tariff. Office of the Governor of Texas, 2026-06-10; Governor Abbott directive letter, 2026-06-10
  • PUCT Project No. 58481 / proposed 16 TAC §25.194 pending: Proposed large-load interconnection standards published March 27, 2026 would apply to new or expanded ERCOT interconnections of at least 75 MW and require intermediate agreements, site control, disclosures, financial security, interconnection fees, contribution in aid of construction, and withdrawal/milestone consequences. No final adopted-rule record was identified by July 17, 2026 in the public Project 58481 docket. Texas Register, 2026-03-27; PUCT Interchange Project 58481, accessed 2026-07-17
  • PUCT Project No. 58000 / transmission cost recovery proposal published: On July 9, PUCT approved publication of amendments to §§25.192 and 25.193 and new §25.252. The proposal would replace summer 4CP with a monthly 12CP method measured in 30-minute intervals, require each covered large load’s minimum billing demand to equal the greatest of contracted peak, prior-year noncoincident peak, or 12CP demand, and impose large-load tariff provisions. Comments are due Aug. 11, so these changes were proposed—not final—at the cutoff date. PUCT Project 58000 proposal for publication, 2026-07-09

4) Generation adequacy (projects & pipeline)

  • Pipeline mix: ERCOT’s Feb. 28, 2026 queue update showed 453.6 GW of active generation interconnection requests, dominated by energy storage and solar, while gas project capacity had grown 271% since the Texas Energy Fund was passed in 2023. ERCOT, 2026-04-01
  • Data-center-driven load growth is now explicit in ERCOT planning: ERCOT’s April 2026 Senate update identified the overwhelming majority of the large-load queue as data centers, making data centers a direct driver of transmission planning, resource adequacy, and interconnection reform. ERCOT, 2026-04-01
  • Behind-the-meter and dedicated-supply models are expanding: Crusoe’s March 2026 Abilene/Microsoft campus announcement includes two buildings and 900 MW of new on-site power generation adjacent to the existing Abilene AI campus. Crusoe, 2026-03-27
  • Clean-energy procurement tied to data-center siting: Google’s Feb. 2026 Wilbarger County announcement said the new data center will be co-located with or built alongside new clean power developed by AES and that Google had contracted to add more than 7,800 MW of net-new energy generation and capacity to the Texas grid. Google, 2026-02-24
  • Google / Intersect co-located supply expanded the model in the Panhandle: Google and Intersect announced the Meitner Energy Center in Gray and Roberts Counties on June 4, 2026 as a data center co-located with dedicated clean power; the accompanying release said the project includes more than 1 GW of wind, solar, and battery storage and that the Haskell County Quantum Clean Energy Project includes 640 MW of solar and 1.3 GWh of storage beginning operations in June 2026 alongside a recently started Google data-center construction project. Google, 2026-06-04; Google/Intersect press release, 2026-06-04
  • Wind-powered compute reached initial energization in South Texas: Soluna reported ERCOT approval for initial energization and phased commissioning of Project Kati 1 in Willacy County on Feb. 9, 2026; the wind-powered site totals 83 MW across Kati 1A and Kati 1B, with phased completion targets in 2026. Soluna Holdings SEC exhibit, 2026-02-10
  • Project-execution risk remains high for some behind-the-meter mega-campus proposals: Texas Tech’s 2025 Fermi announcement described up to 11 GW of IT capacity from natural gas, solar, wind, and nuclear energy, but Houston Chronicle reported in April 2026 that Fermi had lost its CEO and CFO, had not secured major tenants, and faced litigation and schedule risk. Texas Tech University System, 2025-06-26; Houston Chronicle, 2026-04-20
  • Pecos campus will begin with company-funded generation: Microsoft announced a roughly 2 GW Pecos campus whose launch phase will use co-located, behind-the-meter gas generation funded by Microsoft before later grid connection; Microsoft said it would fund the energy and infrastructure required by the project. Microsoft, 2026-06-22
  • Chevron contracted dedicated West Texas generation for Microsoft: Chevron’s Energy Forge One signed a 20-year power agreement for Project Kilby, a planned 2.67 GW phased gas-fired facility co-located with a Microsoft-operated data center. Final investment decision is expected by year-end 2026 and first power in 2028, so the capacity remains prospective. Chevron, 2026-06-22
  • Hall and Childress campuses pair large loads with new supply: QTS/Lancium said the Hall County project would fund 100% of its energy infrastructure and include battery storage and solar, while Crusoe/Lancium described the 1 GW Childress campus as grid-connected with behind-the-meter solar and storage. Lancium, 2026-07-13; Crusoe/Lancium, 2026-07-15
  • Beacon Point moved into contracted development: Hut 8 signed a 15-year lease for the first 352 MW of IT capacity at its planned 1 GW Nueces County campus; the lease value is commercial contract value, not evidence that all 1 GW is energized. Hut 8, 2026-05-06
  • Core Scientific proposed a large Pecos conversion and expansion: The company plans to convert a campus currently using 300 MW gross for Bitcoin mining into AI infrastructure and scale it to approximately 1.5 GW gross / 1.0 GW leasable; the first new data hall was under construction, but the expansion remained available for lease rather than fully contracted. Core Scientific SEC exhibit, 2026-04-27
  • Coravel signed a DFW hyperscale lease: ACS and GIP’s Coravel platform contracted about 140 MW of critical IT load across three Dallas-Fort Worth facilities, with rights for another roughly 100 MW; service is to be phased through 2028. ACS Group, 2026-07-15

5) Utility / system load forecasts and data center demand signals

  • The headline 367,790 MW forecast was ordered adjusted: ERCOT’s April preliminary forecast projected 367,790 MW of demand by 2032, but on June 18 PUCT approved ERCOT’s request to replace it for planning purposes with a Batch Zero base-load methodology. ERCOT must file the adjusted MW values when known; none appeared in the public order by July 17. ERCOT, 2026-04-15; PUCT Project 59772 order, 2026-06-18
  • Large-load forecasting criteria are now rule-based: 16 TAC §25.370 requires ERCOT to use large-load data submitted by distribution service providers for transmission planning and resource adequacy, subject to adjustments for errors, withdrawals, cancellations, or Commission-approved adjustments supported by historical realization rates or other objective information. Texas Register, 2026-02-20
  • 2026 gating criteria are transitional: ERCOT’s April 2026 House State Affairs update stated that after 2026, only large loads with interconnection agreements satisfying Project 58481 requirements would be included in the large-load forecast; for the 2026 forecast, alternative gating criteria apply until new planning cases are built in 2027. ERCOT, 2026-04-09
  • Legislative oversight now explicitly targets load-forecast confidence: The Senate Business and Commerce interim charge directed review of SB 6 rulemaking, including large-load interconnection rules, transmission-cost allocation, and progress toward increasing confidence in ERCOT load forecasts. Office of the Lieutenant Governor of Texas, 2026-03-27

6) Behind-the-meter / co-location / direct supply

  • Co-location / net-metering approval: SB 6 §39.169 requires notice to ERCOT before certain arrangements between an existing ERCOT generation resource and a new large-load customer, requires ERCOT to study system impacts, and requires PUCT to approve, deny, or condition the arrangement within statutory timelines. Texas Legislature, 2025-06-20
  • PUCT implementation now final for existing-resource net-metering arrangements: 16 TAC §25.205 applies in ERCOT to covered net-metering arrangements involving a large load customer and an existing generation resource, requires a completed large-load interconnection study or equivalent study in the application, and requires ERCOT to evaluate transmission security, resource adequacy, and stranded or underutilized transmission assets. Texas Register, 2026-04-10
  • On-site backup generation disclosure and emergency curtailment: SB 6 requires covered large loads to disclose on-site backup generation capable of serving at least 50% of on-site demand and authorizes ERCOT, after deploying available market services except frequency responsive services, to direct deployment of that generation or curtailment during emergency conditions. Texas Legislature, 2025-06-20
  • New Texas projects are pairing direct supply with low-water cooling claims: Google’s Meitner project is described as co-located with dedicated clean power and air cooling, while Aligned’s Caprock campus announcement describes a closed-loop liquid/air cooling design intended to avoid competing with the Ogallala Aquifer-dependent agricultural and residential water needs around Hale County. Google, 2026-06-04; Aligned Data Centers, 2026-04-09
  • Additional projects link self-supply to water-efficiency claims: Microsoft says Pecos will use closed-loop cooling, an initial water charge, and nonpotable water where feasible; QTS/Lancium says Hall County will require no cooling water once operational; Crusoe/Lancium calls Childress non-evaporative and closed-loop. These are company design claims, not PUCT conditions. Microsoft, 2026-06-22; Lancium, 2026-07-13; Crusoe/Lancium, 2026-07-15

7) Transmission constraints and upgrades affecting siting

  • Large-load batch process is now the near-term transmission-planning focus: ERCOT’s April 2026 presentations identify the batch process, status communications with large loads, and a planned large-load portal as key workstreams for moving the interconnection process from project-by-project queue handling toward coordinated studies. ERCOT, 2026-04-09
  • Batch Zero became the concrete transitional mechanism: PUCT approved NPRR1325/PGRR145 on June 18. Qualified loads of at least 75 MW enter coordinated classification and transmission studies, with the final Batch Zero transmission plan targeted for fall 2027. ERCOT, 2026-06-18; ERCOT Planning Guide, 2026-06-18
  • Far West studies must test a no-solar case: Effective Feb. 23, ERCOT directed transmission providers to include a no-solar scenario in large-load interconnection studies in specified Far West counties because low-wind nighttime conditions and outages could otherwise create local load-shed risk. ERCOT Market Notice, 2026-02-23
  • Local transmission and substation impacts are material in project review: Fort Worth’s April 2026 project reporting described a proposed 980 MW substation dedicated to a single data-center project, illustrating how large-load interconnection now shapes local zoning and land-use review. KERA, 2026-04-15
  • County disputes now turn on power and water disclosures: Hood County’s 2026 development-rule amendments required expanded concept-plan disclosures for water sourcing, energy use, infrastructure, environmental impacts, and drainage; the Fort Spunky project cited in the dispute had requested 100 MW from the grid and up to 20,000 gallons of water per day. Texas Tribune, 2026-06-02
  • Southeast and Central Texas local reviews show the MW scale behind siting disputes: Alvin officials said a prospective nearby project was described as roughly 200 MW on day one and scalable to 1 GW. Hays County cited a Highlander SC One proposal using roughly 70,000 gallons per day and on June 23 adopted a water-protection review period through Dec. 31 for discretionary approvals affecting significant-water-use industrial projects. KPRC 2, 2026-06-05; Hays County Commissioners Court, 2026-06-23
  • Round Rock capped a newly approved project at 75 MW: The final Skybox PUD limits the single building to 75 MW of grid-interconnected power and restricts on-site generators to supplemental, emergency, reliability, testing, and utility-managed demand-response uses rather than normal primary supply. City of Round Rock, 2026-02-12
  • Permian Basin Reliability Plan remains relevant for West Texas load growth: PUCT approved the Permian Basin Reliability Plan in 2025, and West Texas data-center, oil-and-gas electrification, and industrial load growth continue to make transmission import capacity a siting constraint. PUCT Project No. 55718 filings, accessed 2026-06-10

Notes / gaps for follow-up

  • Average large-load interconnection wait times: not published in the ERCOT public materials reviewed through 2026-07-17. ERCOT Large Load Integration, accessed 2026-07-17
  • Project-specific load confidentiality: ERCOT and PUCT materials report aggregate large-load volumes and regulatory criteria, but site-specific project MW details are often unavailable or confidential; project-level MW figures in this file therefore rely on company announcements, local-government records, or news reports where primary grid records are not public.