Updated July 2026: the Essential Edition and its companion database are refreshedGet it on Amazon→
PA — Power Infrastructure Updated 2026-07-17

Pennsylvania

PJM Coal Data Center PPAs Queue Bottlenecks Transmission Constraints

Update since publication (checked 24 August 2026). Executive Order 2026-05 (18 August 2026) makes GRID certification a condition of DEP permitting directly, changing this from a policy aspiration awaiting statute into an operative permitting requirement imposed by executive action.

1) Grid operator and market structure

  • RTO/ISO: Pennsylvania is within PJM Interconnection’s footprint; PJM coordinates wholesale power markets and transmission planning across all or parts of Pennsylvania, 12 other states, and D.C. PJM, accessed 2026-06-10
  • Retail market structure: Pennsylvania remains a restructured retail-choice electricity market, with distribution service from the local electric distribution company and competitive supply shopping through the PA PUC’s PAPowerSwitch platform. PA PUC PAPowerSwitch, accessed 2026-06-10

2) PJM load forecast, large-load queue signals, and interconnection reforms

  • 2026 PJM forecast supersedes the stale 2025 forecast: PJM’s January 2026 Long-Term Load Forecast lowered the near-term forecast through 2032 compared with the 2025 forecast, citing EV forecast changes, economic updates, and more disciplined treatment of large-load adjustments. PJM 2026 Load Report, 2026-01
  • Data-center load is still embedded in Pennsylvania zones: PJM’s 2026 forecast identifies data-center load growth adjustments in several zones, including PECO and PL/PPL, so the near-term reduction does not mean data-center load pressure disappeared from Pennsylvania planning. PJM 2026 Load Report, 2026-01
  • Large-load screening tightened: PJM says its large-load adjustment process now distinguishes near-term projects with firm commitments, such as executed service or construction agreements, from longer-term non-firm projects that are derated in the forecast. PJM 2026 Load Report, 2026-01
  • RTO-wide load growth remains substantial: PJM projects summer peak load to rise by 65,733 MW by 2036 and 96,704 MW by 2046, with net energy use growing 5.3% per year over the next decade. PJM 2026 Load Report, 2026-01
  • PPL territory remains the largest Pennsylvania large-load signal: PPL’s advanced-stage Pennsylvania data-center pipeline grew to 28.3 GW by 2034, up from 25.2 GW three months earlier, and includes signed agreements with QTS Data Centers, AWS, PowerHouse Data Centers, and CoreWeave. Utility Dive, 2026-05-11
  • Construction-stage load is material: PPL told investors that about 5 GW of advanced-stage projects were under construction and that the advanced pipeline ramps from roughly 0.6 GW in 2026 to 20.7 GW in 2030. Utility Dive, 2026-05-11
  • FERC opened a nationwide large-load tariff proceeding: On June 18, FERC issued show-cause orders requiring PJM and the other RTOs/ISOs to explain why their existing tariffs are just and reasonable for large-load interconnections or propose reforms; PJM’s proceeding is Docket EL26-67-000. FERC, 2026-06-18
  • The 2028/2029 PJM capacity auction exposed an adequacy gap: PJM’s July 14 auction procured 138,318 MW at the $325/MW-day cap but was 6,831 MW short of the reliability requirement. PJM said its forecast continued to add large data-center loads and identified planned Connect and Manage, backstop-procurement, and bilateral-supply initiatives. PJM, 2026-07-14

3) Ratepayer protection and PA PUC large-load tariff framework

  • Final order issued: The PA PUC released a Final Order in Docket M-2025-3054271 on May 13, 2026 establishing a model tariff framework for large-load customers, including data centers; this supersedes the tentative-order status reflected in the February 2026 version of this file. PA PUC, 2026-05-13
  • Commission vote: The PUC had voted 5-0 on April 30, 2026 to adopt the modified framework before issuing the final written order. PA PUC, 2026-04-30
  • Thresholds: The model tariff guidance applies to customers exceeding 50 MW individually or 100 MW in aggregate. PA PUC, 2026-05-13
  • Cost-causation protections: The Final Order reinforces that large-load customers should be responsible for infrastructure and interconnection costs caused by their projects, reducing the risk that costs are shifted to existing residential and small-business customers. PA PUC, 2026-05-13
  • Financial security and stranded-cost protections: The framework includes deposits, collateral, load-ramping schedules, minimum contract terms, and customer exit provisions intended to mitigate stranded costs from delayed, abandoned, or underperforming projects. PA PUC, 2026-05-13
  • Interconnection transparency: The PUC directed utilities to maintain public-facing large-load interconnection queue information and set expectations for completing interconnection studies within six months. PA PUC, 2026-05-13
  • Reconsideration was withdrawn: On July 16 the PUC granted the Energy Association of Pennsylvania’s request to withdraw its reconsideration/clarification petition, leaving the May model tariff framework in place. The docket remains labeled active and also contains June 22 load-interconnection rulemaking questions. PA PUC July 16 Opinion and Order, 2026-07-16; PA PUC Docket M-2025-3054271, accessed 2026-07-17
  • PPL’s LP-6 class became effective July 1: The PUC approved PPL Electric’s distribution-rate settlement on June 4. LP-6 applies to customers beginning service on or after October 1, 2025 with at least 50 MW at one facility or 75 MW aggregated among facilities served at 69 kV or above within ten miles, subject to a limited petition exception. It includes a minimum ten-year agreement, upgrade security and exit protections, and an $11 million annual non-bypassable low-income-assistance allocation beginning in 2027. PPL Electric settlement, 2026-03-13; PPL Electric / SEC filing, 2026-06-04
  • Legislative overlap remains pending: HB 1834 would create data-center utility contracting, cost-recovery, clean-energy, and ratepayer-protection requirements; it passed the House on March 24, 2026 and remains pending in the Senate. PA General Assembly HB 1834, generated/accessed 2026-06-10
  • Energy and water reporting is now law: Act 21 of 2026 requires data centers with peak demand of at least 10 MW to submit annual energy- and water-use reports to DEP beginning July 1, 2027; DEP and the PUC must publish consumption trends, and failure to report carries a $10,000-per-day penalty. PA General Assembly SB 146 / Act 21 status, 2026-07-12; PA General Assembly Act 21 text, 2026-07-12

4) Generation adequacy and energy-supply conditions

  • GRID energy conditions for state support: Gov. Shapiro’s May 2026 GRID Standards require data-center applicants seeking Commonwealth support to submit an energy plan, build/bring/buy incremental electric capacity needed for the project, pay the full cost of that capacity, and pay project-caused interconnection, transmission, distribution, and network-upgrade costs. Governor Shapiro press release, 2026-05-27
  • Clean firm energy ramp: GRID applicants must include escalating clean firm energy commitments reaching 32% in 2035, but the administration is still seeking legislation to make GRID certification a condition for data-center tax benefits. Governor Shapiro press release, 2026-05-27; Spotlight PA, 2026-06-02
  • Homer City Energy Campus: Homer City Redevelopment continues to describe the former coal-plant site as a planned natural-gas-powered energy and data-center campus, with project materials describing more than 4 GW of planned generation capacity and data-center load. Homer City Redevelopment project overview, accessed 2026-06-10
  • Supply-side timing matters: Associated Press coverage of the Homer City announcement described an initial investment of roughly $10 billion and a plan to begin producing power around 2027, making the project relevant to near-term PJM supply and Pennsylvania data-center development assumptions. Associated Press, 2025-04-02
  • GRID codification remains pending: HB 2650 passed the House on June 24 and SB 1384 was introduced July 10, but the July budget did not enact either bill; clean-firm percentages and the build/bring/buy obligation therefore remain conditions for discretionary Commonwealth support rather than general statutory operating requirements. PA General Assembly HB 2650, generated 2026-07-17; PA General Assembly SB 1384, generated 2026-07-17; Philadelphia Inquirer, 2026-07-13

5) Utility load forecasts, local infrastructure, and capital implications

  • PPL capital exposure is tied to executed data-center agreements: PPL said its advanced projects have signed agreements and that PPL will be paid for project-related work even if projects do not proceed, a key ratepayer-risk distinction for the utility’s 28.3 GW pipeline. Utility Dive, 2026-05-11
  • PPL/Blackstone generation strategy: PPL and Blackstone reported multiple gas-turbine reservation agreements and multiple generation projects submitted into the PJM queue as part of their Pennsylvania data-center strategy. Utility Dive, 2026-05-11
  • Lancaster substation upgrade: The City of Lancaster says Chirisa, not city taxpayers, is paying to replace and upgrade the existing substation serving the 216 Greenfield Road data center site. City of Lancaster, accessed 2026-06-10
  • Lancaster cooling and water profile: The City says the Greenfield Road project will use air-cooled chillers and a closed-loop system and should use substantially less water than the former printing operation at the site. City of Lancaster, accessed 2026-06-10
  • Falls Township onsite-generation proposal entered air review: Amazon’s April air-permit application for its Bucks County campus proposes 280 natural-gas-fired generators and three diesel emergency generators. DEP held a July 14 community meeting and scheduled the formal public-comment period to begin July 18. PA DEP, 2026-07-13

6) Co-location, behind-the-meter supply, and direct arrangements

  • Federal/state jurisdiction split remains important: The PUC large-load framework governs Pennsylvania EDC tariff and retail-service issues, while PJM/FERC rules continue to govern wholesale-market, transmission, and interconnection questions for generation and co-located load. PA PUC, 2026-05-13; PJM Manual 14A, accessed 2026-06-10
  • Developer-provided supply is now a state policy condition, not only a market design issue: GRID’s requirement that supported data centers build, bring, or buy incremental capacity shifts Pennsylvania policy toward developer responsibility for new supply, though statutory tax-benefit conditioning remains pending. Governor Shapiro press release, 2026-05-27
  • PJM is developing flexible connection and contracting options: PJM said on July 14 that it was developing Connect and Manage rules under which new large loads could connect subject to flexible operation during constrained conditions, and that it began facilitating long-term bilateral matching between large loads and new generation, storage, or demand-side resources on June 9. PJM, 2026-07-14

7) Transmission constraints and planned upgrades

  • Large-load interconnection process is now explicitly public-facing: The PUC framework requires utilities to publish public-facing information on large-load interconnection requests and study status, which should improve visibility into Pennsylvania transmission/distribution constraints caused by data centers. PA PUC, 2026-05-13
  • Act 21 requires advanced-technology review in state transmission siting: Applicants in PUC transmission-siting cases and letters of notification must assess advanced transmission technologies, including dynamic line ratings, advanced power-flow controllers, topology optimization, and high-performance conductors. The PUC may condition approval on their use and must issue assessment requirements within one year. PA General Assembly Act 21 text, 2026-07-12
  • PPL’s pipeline implies major transmission and generation needs: A 28.3 GW advanced-stage pipeline by 2034 is far larger than ordinary distribution-load growth and is therefore a central Pennsylvania transmission-planning issue, particularly because PPL says several gigawatts are already under construction. Utility Dive, 2026-05-11
  • Sugarloaf is an active project-level PUC test: The Office of Consumer Advocate protested PPL Sugarloaf-area applications at Dockets A-2026-3061547, A-2026-3061549, and P-2026-3061609 on May 7. Its filing says the facilities would serve the anticipated Hazle AI data center and other large loads, with an initial 240 MW customer in 2028 growing to 965 MW by 2033 and other area requests exceeding 5,000 MW by 2033. The OCA asked the PUC to examine need, alternatives, cost causation, and environmental and health impacts. Separately, the PUC held June 30 public-input hearings on PPL’s related 1.1-mile, 230-kV Sugarloaf component at Docket A-2025-3059443. Pennsylvania Office of Consumer Advocate, 2026-05-07; PPL Electric Sugarloaf Project, accessed 2026-07-17
  • Project-level local infrastructure decisions are already occurring: Lancaster’s substation replacement and Hazle Township’s Project Hazelnut pause show that transmission/substation impacts are moving from forecast documents into local project review. City of Lancaster, accessed 2026-06-10; FOX56 WOLF, 2026-06-08
  • The capacity shortfall raises the stakes for transmission and interconnection timing: The 2028/2029 auction was 6,831 MW short of PJM’s reliability requirement even though cleared supply rose, and PJM said the entire RTO had missed the requirement for a second consecutive auction as large data-center load continued entering the forecast. PJM, 2026-07-14

Notes on sources and gaps