ND — Power Infrastructure Updated 2026-07-17

North Dakota

MISO Natural Gas Solar Wind Coal Data Center PPAs Queue Bottlenecks Transmission Constraints

Last updated: 2026-07-17.

1) Grid operator and market structure

  • RTO/ISO & balancing authority: North Dakota remains split between the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) and Southwest Power Pool (SPP), with each RTO operating wholesale markets and transmission-planning processes for its footprint in the state North Dakota Transmission Authority, 2025.
  • Retail market structure: North Dakota remains a regulated retail electricity market. EIA’s latest state electricity profile lists all 2024 retail sales as full-service-provider sales and zero energy-only-provider sales, and the PSC remains the state regulator for investor-owned electric utility rates and service EIA, accessed 2026-06-10 North Dakota PSC, accessed 2026-06-10.

2) Interconnection queue and large-load connection path

  • Regional generator queue depth: As of May 2025, SPP’s regionwide generator interconnection queue had 701 active projects totaling 162,285.61 MW; the North Dakota portion had 28 SPP-queue projects totaling 6,568 MW and 8,026 MW of active MISO-queue projects, with 250 MW of wind having an approved generator interconnection agreement but not yet operating North Dakota Transmission Authority, 2025.
  • Queue timing context: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s 2025 “Queued Up” materials show multi-year national interconnection delays for built projects, which is useful context for MISO/SPP backlogs even though data-center load requests are not generator interconnection requests Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 2025-12-15.
  • Queue reforms: NDTA reports that MISO and SPP are using Expedited Resource Addition Study (ERAS) approaches to accelerate reliability-needed generation additions during interconnection backlogs North Dakota Transmission Authority, 2025.
  • Large-load path differs from generator queue: Public North Dakota data-center load records continue to appear mainly in utility service, tariff, and transmission-siting proceedings rather than in the generator queue. In January 2026, Minnkota Power Cooperative filed the Agassiz transmission line and substation application for a 1.74-mile, double-circuit 345-kV tap line and 345/34.5-kV substation south of Harwood; the application states the project was accelerated to accommodate Cass County Electric Cooperative member interconnection requests, “including but not limited to” the Polaris Forge 2 data center Minnkota Power Cooperative PSC application, 2026-01-12.
  • MISO large-load rule development: In February 2026, MISO proposed defining a large load as a new commercial or industrial facility or aggregation above 50 MW at one site and began developing interconnection reliability requirements. On June 18, FERC opened Docket EL26-70, preliminarily finding gaps in MISO’s tariff and directing MISO and its transmission owners to justify the existing rules or file reforms within 60 days, including transparent study processes, cost-recovery protections, co-location treatment, and flexible-load service; a generation-adequacy report was due within 30 days. The order cited about 17 GW of MISO-approved large-load additions since the 2022 planning cycle. The compliance/reform response was not yet due by July 17. Sources: MISO stakeholder feedback page, 2026-02-25; FERC MISO show-cause order, 2026-06-18.
  • SPP high-impact-load process and federal review: SPP began implementing its FERC-approved High Impact Large Load (HILL) study pathways and held public process meetings in May, June, and July. FERC nevertheless opened Docket EL26-68 on June 18 and directed SPP to justify or reform remaining large-load tariff provisions, including cost transparency, cost recovery if a load does not materialize, co-located/proximate generation, and flexible service. These regional proceedings apply to North Dakota utilities and projects in the respective MISO and SPP footprints, but neither order itself approves a North Dakota project. Sources: Southwest Power Pool HILL implementation page, accessed 2026-07-17; FERC SPP show-cause order, 2026-06-18.

3) Ratepayer protection

  • Large-load tariff anchor: MDU’s Rate 45 - High Density Contracted Demand Response tariff remains the primary North Dakota tariff mechanism identified for very large data-center load. PSC Case PU-22-337 was filed in 2022, closed in 2023, and includes the application for “High Density Contracted Demand Response Rate 45” and the PSC order approving the tariff proceeding North Dakota PSC Case PU-22-337, accessed 2026-06-10 North Dakota PSC, 2022-10-27.
  • Project-specific service review: The PSC’s February 5, 2025 order in Case PU-24-332 approved an amendment to MDU’s Applied Digital electric service agreement, increasing the service amount from 225 MW to 350 MW, extending the agreement to August 31, 2030, and finding the amended agreement just and reasonable without undue discrimination North Dakota PSC, 2025-02-05.
  • Service-territory oversight: The PSC’s February 5, 2025 order in Case PU-24-330 issued Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity No. 6006 authorizing MDU to provide electric distribution service to Applied Digital in Dickey County North Dakota PSC, 2025-02-05.
  • Transmission rider effects: In the 2025 Transmission Cost Adjustment update, PSC staff noted that the filing included net transmission-related expenses and revenues from MDU’s Rate 45 customer; lower-than-projected Rate 45 revenue contributed to an under-collected balance, while the Rate 45 customer was still expected to provide a $7,365,540 benefit to MDU customers during the recovery period North Dakota PSC, 2025-10-06.
  • Polaris Forge 3 service agreement remains subject to PSC approval: On June 22, MDU announced an electric service agreement for Applied Digital’s proposed Polaris Forge 3 near Center. At full buildout, MDU would arrange 430 MW of capacity for 300 MW of critical IT load; Applied Digital would bear the energy and infrastructure costs through market purchases or other supply arrangements. MDU said PSC approval of the agreement and other filings was still required. Source: Montana-Dakota Utilities and Applied Digital, 2026-06-22.
  • Pending MDU general rate case: MDU filed Case PU-26-241 on June 30 seeking a $34.49 million, 14.5% overall electric-rate increase using a 2027 test year, including an interim increase request. MDU testimony says Rate 45 customers above 10 MW are excluded from its long-term load forecast because their energy is supplied through MISO market purchases or specific supply arrangements, rather than the rate-base generation fleet. MDU separately states the requested increase is not caused by data centers; that assertion and class cost allocation remain subject to PSC review. Sources: North Dakota PSC Case PU-26-241, filed 2026-06-30; MDU rate-case testimony, 2026-06-30; Montana-Dakota Utilities rate-case page, accessed 2026-07-17.
  • Ellendale construction-camp service: In Case PU-26-173, the PSC granted MDU temporary authority on June 9 to serve Applied Digital’s Ellendale construction-worker camp; MDU applied for permanent authority on June 11, and the case remained open with a July 20 hearing-request deadline. This is a project-support service-territory matter, not a new data-center rate class. Source: North Dakota PSC Case PU-26-173, accessed 2026-07-17.

4) Generation adequacy

  • Major generation projects: NDTA’s 2025 report lists several North Dakota or North-Dakota-serving additions: Basin Electric’s Pioneer gas engines and combustion turbines, the planned 1,470-MW Bison Station near Epping by 2030, Minnkota’s 370-MW Flickertail Wind Farm with construction expected by 2027, MDU’s 150-MW interest/off-take in the 250-MW Badger Wind project, Otter Tail’s 295-MW Abercrombie solar project, and wind repowering projects North Dakota Transmission Authority, 2025.
  • Resource adequacy risk: NDTA reports that earlier studies of proposed federal power-plant regulations showed potential capacity shortfalls as soon as 2028 in MISO and 2030 in SPP; the report says the federal administration change relieved some pressure on coal and gas resources, but load growth and capacity adequacy remain core planning concerns North Dakota Transmission Authority, 2025.
  • Basin Electric 2026 forecast treatment: Basin Electric approved its 2026 load forecast in January and reported on February 4 that the forecast was lower than the 2025 projection because of softer Bakken growth and the loss of a large cryptocurrency load, while still showing significant traditional-load growth. Basin’s Large Load Commercial Program gives qualifying large loads a separate planning path rather than embedding them in the traditional forecast. Source: Basin Electric Power Cooperative, 2026-02-04.
  • River Run proposal: Basin Electric and NextEra are evaluating a 1,450 MW combined-cycle natural-gas plant in Mercer County as the foundation for an associated multi-gigawatt data-center campus. Basin says its Large Load Commercial Program makes the requesting customer responsible for infrastructure costs. The generation plant and campus remained proposals, not operating or approved resources, at the cutoff. Sources: Basin Electric Power Cooperative, 2026-03-20; Basin Electric Power Cooperative, 2026-04-09.

5) Utility load forecasts and data-center load

  • Applied Digital operating and construction load: Applied Digital reported on July 1 that the first 75 MW phase of Polaris Forge 1’s second building was ready for service, raising live critical-IT load at Ellendale to 175 MW; the fully leased campus is contracted for 400 MW at full buildout. Polaris Forge 2 near Harwood remained under construction for 200 MW of critical IT load, while the proposed Polaris Forge 3 near Center would require 430 MW of utility capacity for 300 MW of critical IT load and target initial operation in August 2027. Sources: Applied Digital, 2026-07-01; Montana-Dakota Utilities and Applied Digital, 2026-06-22.
  • Existing hosting load: Applied Digital also reported that, as of February 28, 2026, its 106-MW Jamestown facility and 180-MW Ellendale data center hosting facility were operating at full capacity Applied Digital, 2026-04-08.
  • Harwood-area load-driven transmission: The Agassiz application states that Minnkota’s existing power grid will provide all power needed by the data center and other customers, Cass County Electric Cooperative will construct the distribution line from the Agassiz substation, and the $75 million project was moved up to support the adjacent large-load interconnection Minnkota Power Cooperative PSC application, 2026-01-12.
  • Nakota behind-the-meter proposal: A June SEC filing describes Tachyon 9’s proposed Williams County campus as up to 1 GW in phased increments, with the first 120-150 MW targeted for the second quarter of 2027 and a planned gas-fired, behind-the-meter power core. The project was tied to land options and a proposed corporate transaction, so neither its load nor generation should be counted as committed capacity. Sources: Nixxy SEC Form 8-K and LOI, 2026-06-15; Nixxy SEC-filed project release, 2026-06-09.

6) Behind-the-meter / co-location / direct PPAs

  • Backup generation policy: North Dakota enacted HB 1539 in 2025 to streamline PSC siting treatment for backup electric generation units connected to data centers, a resilience measure rather than a record of primary behind-the-meter generation approvals for the current Applied projects Office of Governor Kelly Armstrong, 2025-03-21.
  • Current public arrangements: Existing Applied Digital campuses continue to rely on regulated retail service, special tariffs/service agreements, utility certificates, and transmission upgrades rather than a FERC-approved co-location arrangement. The Center proposal follows that model through MDU’s proposed Rate 45 service agreement; the Nakota announcement instead proposes a grid-independent behind-the-meter gas power core but had not reached a North Dakota or FERC approval in the sources reviewed. Sources: Montana-Dakota Utilities and Applied Digital, 2026-06-22; Nixxy SEC Form 8-K and LOI, 2026-06-15.

7) Transmission constraints and upgrades

  • Regional upgrades: NDTA highlights MISO-SPP seam constraints and major transmission work relevant to large-load siting, including the Big Stone South-Hankinson-Bison 345-kV JTIQ project, MISO LRTP Tranche 1 and 2.1 projects, SPP’s 2024 Integrated Transmission Plan upgrades, the North Plains Connector HVDC project, and the NEXUS HVDC line from Coal Creek Station to the Minneapolis area North Dakota Transmission Authority, 2025.
  • Agassiz order status: On April 29, 2026, the PSC granted Minnkota’s consolidated Agassiz application, issued Certificate of Corridor Compatibility No. 248 and Route Permit No. 259, and authorized approximately 1.74 miles of 345-kV transmission line and an associated substation in Cass County, subject to order conditions North Dakota PSC, 2026-04-29.
  • Agassiz construction status: Minnkota’s June construction report, filed July 1, recorded transmission grading at 100%, substation foundations at 90%, substation fencing at 95%, and initial structure-setting work, with no new environmental incidents reported. The PSC order’s target remained commercial operation by December 2026. Sources: Minnkota June construction report, 2026-07-01; North Dakota PSC, 2026-04-29.

Source notes

  • Primary sources emphasized: ND PSC dockets and orders, utility applications, NDTA annual reporting, EIA state electricity data, Legislative Branch materials, and company filings/press releases for project status.