Trends & Analysis
Key findings from analyzing 600+ projects
Investment Growth Trajectory
| Period | Investment | Projects |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-2020 | $48.6B | 150+ |
| 2021-2022 | $57.8B | 100+ |
| 2023 | $29.0B | 60+ |
| 2024 | $276B | 150+ |
| 2025 (announced) | $616B | 200+ |
What's Driving Growth
- • AI demand acceleration - ChatGPT and generative AI driving unprecedented compute needs
- • Private equity capital deployment - Patient capital enabling gigawatt-scale projects
- • National security prioritization - Domestic AI infrastructure as strategic imperative
- • Hyperscaler expansion - Big Tech racing to build AI training and inference capacity
Geographic Shifts
Traditional Hubs
Emerging Markets
Key Insight: Transmission corridor access driving location decisions more than traditional factors (labor, taxes).
Project Characteristics
Scale Trends
- • Average project size increasing year over year
- • More gigawatt-scale announcements (46 projects ≥1 GW)
- • Mega-project dominance reshaping market dynamics
Purpose Evolution
- • AI/ML projects growing as share of total (23.2%)
- • Hyperscale vs. colocation mix shifting toward hyperscale
- • Edge computing growth modest relative to predictions
Risk Factors
Identified Risks
- • Interconnection queue backlogs (5-8 year delays)
- • Power generation adequacy
- • Water availability in arid regions
- • Policy and regulatory uncertainty
- • Technology obsolescence risk
Market Risks
- • AI demand plateau scenarios - What if generative AI adoption slows?
- • Interest rate sensitivity - Higher capital costs impact project economics
- • Competition from alternative locations - International projects could reshape market
Key Findings Summary
Power is the constraint
Transmission capacity determines location more than any other factor. Data centers go where power is available, not where labor or incentives are most attractive.
Scale is unprecedented
$1T+ represents largest private infrastructure buildout in US history. More capital deployed than interstate highway system, adjusted for inflation.
Geographic shift underway
Away from saturated markets toward power-rich regions. Northern Virginia hits grid constraints while Pennsylvania, Kansas, and New Mexico attract mega-projects.
Private equity dominance
Patient capital enabling mega-project structures. Blackstone, DigitalBridge, and sovereign wealth funds deploying tens of billions into long-term infrastructure plays.
Policy fragmentation
No coherent national framework for gigawatt-scale facilities. Each state, utility, and township negotiates independently with limited technical capacity.
Data Downloads
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